I really hope some Classical Scholar picks this up. Forgive me, the rest of you! ;)
Josephus says Syllaeus the Nabatean accused Herod before Caesar in late 9 BC. Cassius Dio says Augustus was barely in the city at all during that time, except for his stepson's funeral, briefly. As far as I can tell, no historian has yet published considerations about the potential impact of Drusus Nero's death on the Emperor's decision - which he evidently must have made during the funeral week - to turn Herod the Great from "a friend" into "a subject". My September 2006 draft-reconstruction of 9 BC still has it's flaws, so I've done a bit of closer scrutiny on it this week. Part One deals with Syllaeus, Part Two deals with Drusus, and Part Three ties them together, concluding with thoughts on the important question at hand.
Seriously now, I'll leave it to some seasoned professional to tighten my arguments and strengthen my conclusion, if such can be done. Until then, these rough sketches of someone else's future (possibly groundbreaking) scholarship really need to be here, online. (Click the links or scroll down through today's previous posts.)
Happy New Year, Y'all. :)